Friday, 25 February 2022

Everything changes, but nothing really does

When I was six, Russia invaded Hungary, and I first learned the word ‘refugee’.  When I was 11, Russian and American tanks faced each other in the middle of Berlin and the ensuing years saw many deaths of people trying to flee communist oppression.  When I went up to university, Russian tanks had recently rumbled into Prague.  

As I approached 40, Eastern European populations achieved an end of the USSR and its domination of satellite states, and it felt for a moment as if the world was changing for the better.  But in the ensuing chaos, the main beneficiaries have been the oligarchs and mafiosi, neatly replacing the party machine.  The populations freed of state oppression became victims of unemployment, crime and poverty instead.  Ukraine is hardly an exception, suffering widespread corruption and poverty, but the difference is its wealth of natural resources.  Today’s television footage shows the stream of traffic crawling west towards Poland, one of Europe’s least welcoming countries when it comes to refugees, and one governed by Europe’s most reactionary regime (with the possible exception of Hungary).  My guess is that Poland will be all too ready to hurry the traffic through towards its western neighbours.  

Part of Russia’s strategy is to bolster the Russian-speaking populations of neighbouring countries, and notably the Baltic states.  In the last century, they enjoyed a degree of autonomy until Russia barged in again in 1940, then again following the collapse of the USSR.  Since then, they have become technologically very advanced and relatively prosperous, and of course EU and NATO members.  But unless Russia’s annexation of Ukraine fails (and maybe even if it does), I can’t help fearing that the next targets will be the Baltic states, and at that point the balloon really will go up.  

So, as I plod on into my 70s, the Russian bogeyman is every bit as menacing as when I was six.  (And my skills in political commentary haven’t improved much either!)

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